IVC Economic forecasts tool

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The analysis of macroeconomic data is becoming increasingly important for the valuation of companies, especially in the context of plausibility checks of plans; an analysis of macroeconomic developments is explicitly required in IDW Praxishinweis 2/2017: “Assessment of business plans in valuation, restructuring, due diligence and fairness opinion”. Within this framework, the performance of the company in the long term is particularly relevant to the long-term development of the GDP, inflation rate and labour market which are the starting points for branch-specific analyses.

The data presented above are based on a survey by the ECB (Survey of Professional Forecasters). The chart above shows the longer-term expectations (5 years) of expected inflation rates, unemployment rates and real growth rates. In addition, the confidence interval (95%) of the average expectations is shown. Furthermore, the coefficient of variation of the forecasts is shown; this can be used as a measure of the divergence of the analysts’ assessments at a given point in time. In this respect, a higher value indicates a higher degree of uncertainty with regard to future developments.

Data source: European Central Bank, Statistical Data Warehouse

Disclaimer (non-binding translation, see German site for binding version): The IVC Economic forecasts tool is a free service provided by IVC Independent Valuation & Consulting Aktiengesellschaft Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft, which can be used without concluding a contract. The results must be checked and we do not accept any liability for incorrect calculations. The IVC Economic forecasts tool does not replace a valuation report.