IVC Economic indicator tool

The analysis of macroeconomic data is becoming increasingly important for the valuation of companies, especially in the context of plausibility checks of plans; an analysis of macroeconomic developments is explicitly required in IDW Praxishinweis 2/2017: “Assessment of business plans in valuation, restructuring, due diligence and fairness opinion”. In this context, the economic environment is particularly relevant for the performance of the company in the short term.

The index series shown above depicts the digital process data from the truck toll data collection (daily truck toll mileage index) from 1 January 2008 as an economic early indicator for Germany (Link). Due to its rapid availability and high correlation with other economic indicators, the toll data is considered to have a high information value (Link).

In the chart above, the year- and seasonally adjusted values (“adjusted”) as well as a 7-day average of the adjusted values (“7-day MA”) are illustrated.

Data source: Federal Office for Goods Transport (BAG), Deutsche Bundesbank, Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), 2020

Disclaimer (non-binding translation, see German site for binding version): The IVC Economic indicator tool is a free service provided by IVC Independent Valuation & Consulting Aktiengesellschaft Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft, which can be used without concluding a contract. The results must be checked and we do not accept any liability for incorrect calculations. The IVC Economic indicator tool does not replace a valuation report.